50% of Kenyans Expect ODM to Return to Opposition by 2027, TIFA Survey Shows

ODM leader Oburu Oginga jets back, views sister’s body at mortuary after hiatus in Dubai

Half of Kenyans believe the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) will return to the Opposition by the time of the 2027 General Election, according to a new survey by research firm TIFA.

The survey shows that 50 percent of respondents expect ODM to leave the Broad-Based Government (BBG) arrangement before the next election. However, expectations differ sharply depending on political affiliation. Among supporters of opposition parties, large majorities believe ODM will rejoin them, with 80 percent of DCP supporters, 75 percent of Wiper supporters and 71 percent of Jubilee supporters holding this view. On the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) side, opinions are split, with 46 percent believing ODM will remain in the BBG.

ODM supporters themselves are divided. Half of them expect the party to return to the Opposition, while 38 percent believe it will stay in the Broad-Based Government.

The same TIFA survey shows that ODM has emerged as Kenya’s most popular political party, narrowly overtaking the ruling UDA. ODM commands 20 percent support nationally, while UDA follows closely at 16 percent.

Despite remaining the country’s two dominant parties, both have lost support compared to the period following the 2022 General Election. TIFA notes that no party currently enjoys a stable or decisive support base, with voter loyalty becoming increasingly fluid as the country heads toward by-elections and the 2027 polls.

Coalition backing slightly strengthens ODM’s position. The Azimio coalition has 6 percent support, compared to 2 percent for the Kenya Kwanza coalition. Combined, parties and coalitions linked to the broad-based government arrangement account for about 44 percent of Kenya’s adult population.

Analysts caution, however, that ODM’s popularity does not automatically translate into support for President William Ruto’s re-election bid in 2027. The party has experienced growing internal debate in recent months, particularly over its future direction following Raila Odinga’s reduced involvement in frontline politics.

TIFA also notes that ODM’s support has risen sharply since its August survey, when the party stood at 13 percent. This growth has enabled ODM to overtake UDA amid signs of increasing political engagement nationwide.

At the same time, the number of Kenyans without a party affiliation or who are undecided has declined. Those identifying with no party fell from 31 percent to 22 percent, while undecided voters dropped from 10 percent to 6 percent.

One of the main beneficiaries of this shift, apart from ODM, is the Jubilee Party. Jubilee’s support has nearly tripled from 3 percent in August to 11 percent. According to the report, this increase may be linked to former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s renewed public role in party affairs and his support for former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, now Jubilee’s Deputy Party Leader.

The survey also examined public opinion following the death of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, finding that many Kenyans view his passing as a challenge rather than an advantage for President Ruto ahead of the 2027 election.

According to the findings, 41 percent of respondents believe Raila’s death will make it more difficult for President Ruto to secure re-election. In contrast, 30 percent say it will be easier for him to win another term, while 10 percent remain unsure.

Regional views vary widely. Optimism about President Ruto’s re-election prospects is highest in Western Kenya and Nairobi, where 38 percent and 36 percent of respondents respectively say his chances have improved. However, pessimism is strongest in the Mt Kenya and South Rift regions, where 56 percent and 52 percent of respondents believe his re-election bid has become harder.

Even in Raila Odinga’s home region of Nyanza, pessimism outweighs optimism. Forty percent of respondents there say President Ruto’s re-election will now be more difficult, compared to 25 percent who believe it will be easier.

“Apparently based at least in part on ‘wishful thinking’, there is a clear correlation between attitudes towards the Broad-Based Government and expectations of the President’s re-election prospects in the wake of Raila’s demise,” the report states.

TIFA adds that supporters of the Broad-Based Government are more likely to believe President Ruto’s chances have improved. About 40 percent of BBG supporters say his prospects are better, compared to 23 percent among BBG opponents. On the other hand, 54 percent of BBG opponents believe his re-election has become more difficult without Raila’s presence, compared to 31 percent of BBG supporters. Among respondents with no opinion on the BBG, 35 percent said they were unsure about the impact of Raila’s absence.