Kalonzo-Matiang’i Ticket Slightly Preferred Among Opposition Supporters, TIFA Survey Shows

A new national survey has revealed no clear favourite opposition ticket for the 2027 General Election, although a pairing involving Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i appears to hold a slight edge among opposition supporters.

According to the latest national survey released on May 14, 2026, by the Trends and Insights For Africa (TIFA), titled Current Political Alignments and 2027 Election Prospects, the Kalonzo-Matiang’i combination attracted slightly more backing among opposition supporters than a Kalonzo-Edwin Sifuna ticket.

The survey found that 31 per cent of opposition supporters preferred a Kalonzo-Matiang’i pairing, compared to 28 per cent who favoured a Kalonzo-Sifuna alliance, regardless of who would serve as presidential or deputy-presidential candidate.

TIFA noted that when considering possible opposition candidate pairings to face President William Ruto in next year’s election, no single combination clearly emerged as the overwhelming favourite.

The report further observed that nearly half of those supporting President Ruto’s re-election bid — 40 per cent — said no opposition ticket appealed to them.

“How much influence public opinion — expressed in whatever form — will have in this selection process remains to be seen,” the report states.

The findings come as another section of the survey shows strong support among President Ruto’s backers for Deputy President Kithure Kindiki to retain his place on the presidential ticket.

According to TIFA, 59 per cent of respondents who support President Ruto’s re-election said they preferred Prof. Kindiki to remain his running mate in the 2027 General Election.

Other potential running mates trailed significantly, with Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga emerging as the second-most preferred choice at 12 per cent.

ODM acting party leader Oburu Odinga and former Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho tied in third place with 3 per cent support each.

Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi attracted 2 per cent support, while National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula registered 1 per cent.

The survey also reaffirmed President Ruto’s position as the country’s leading potential presidential contender, with 24 per cent support nationally.

However, TIFA cautioned that despite leading the field, the President’s support level — representing about one-quarter of respondents — suggests the Opposition still has room to consolidate support before the 2027 General Election.

The pollster further observed that backing for many of President Ruto’s potential challengers remains concentrated in regional strongholds, raising questions about their ability to build broad national appeal.

At the same time, the survey indicated uncertainty over whether support currently spread among multiple opposition leaders could easily shift to a single candidate if one flagbearer eventually emerges.