Kisii Senate race: Gichana’s entry threatens to upset Onyonka’s 2027 political calculus
The entry of flamboyant Kitutu Chache North politician Don Bosco Gichana into the Kisii senatorial race has introduced a new twist to the county’s increasingly fluid political landscape ahead of the 2027 General Election.
Gichana has declared his intention to contest the Senate seat, reportedly on an Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) ticket, setting the stage for a potentially bruising nomination battle that could complicate Senator Richard Onyonka’s political calculations.
The prospect of the two politicians seeking the same seat is particularly intriguing given their shared clan roots, history of rivalry and subsequent reconciliation. Their possible clash could test the influence of clan loyalties, party machinery and personal political networks in determining who represents Kisii in the Senate.
However, a Kisii University don and political analyst has dismissed the prospect of Gichana significantly disrupting the county’s existing political alignments, arguing that he has yet to establish a sufficiently strong grassroots following.
“Currently, the odds are against him. Gichana is an elite who has failed to gain significant traction among the Abagetutu clan, and that is why he may not bring much to Arati’s table,” the analyst said.
Onyonka, meanwhile, has publicly declared his intention to challenge Governor Simba Arati for the governorship, setting up a potentially consequential contest between the two leaders who were once political allies.
Behind the public declarations, however, negotiations involving other influential figures are reportedly underway, raising questions about whether the eventual contest for Kisii’s top elective positions will follow the lines currently emerging.
Former Kisii Governor James Ongwae is also being mentioned as a possible contender for the Senate seat, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already fluid political equation.
Arati-Onyonka fallout shapes the contest
The emerging Senate race is unfolding against the backdrop of a deepening rift between Arati and Onyonka, whose political relationship has deteriorated as they position themselves for the next electoral cycle.
Arati has intensified his criticism of Onyonka and other elected leaders, urging voters to elect a new senator, woman representative and Members of County Assembly in 2027 while retaining his administration.
The governor has defended his development record, pointing to projects such as Etaya Park, which was transformed from a former dumpsite into a public recreational space.
The exchanges have fuelled speculation about how Arati’s political camp could position itself in the Senate contest, particularly if Onyonka commits to challenging the governor for his seat.
Claims have emerged in political circles that Gichana’s reported ambitions could receive encouragement from forces aligned with Arati as part of a broader effort to weaken Onyonka’s political influence.
However, no publicly established evidence has emerged confirming that Arati is sponsoring Gichana’s bid, and the alleged arrangement remains unverified.
The analyst also questioned whether Gichana has the financial capacity to mount a competitive campaign, arguing that a serious Senate bid would require substantial personal resources.
“He cannot entirely depend on the generosity of friends to run a major campaign. He must also have his own resources, which is a rare feat for him at the moment,” Onsongo stated.
The analyst further argued that Onyonka and Ongwae continue to wield considerable influence over the Omogetutu clan’s voting bloc.
“Even Governor Simba Arati is aware,” he added.
Whether Gichana can translate his political ambitions into a serious challenge will depend on his ability to mobilise resources, establish a broader support base and secure the party nomination.
Onyonka’s double-track strategy
While Onyonka has publicly set his sights on the governorship, reports of broader coalition-building efforts suggest he may be keeping his political options open as the 2027 elections approach.
The senator is reportedly in talks with former Education Cabinet Secretary Ezekiel Machogu over the formation of a broad political coalition that could bring together influential figures from different political camps.
Former South Mugirango MP Omingo Magara, who leads the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), could also join the discussions, potentially expanding the negotiations beyond the two principal figures.
If the talks advance, the proposed coalition could provide a platform for negotiating political ambitions, electoral interests and alliances ahead of the next General Election.
The precise terms of the discussions remain unclear, including whether the leaders have agreed on a common political platform or settled on the positions each would seek.
Onyonka’s position is particularly significant because his public declaration points towards a gubernatorial contest, while coalition negotiations could preserve alternative options depending on how the political landscape evolves.
Will he ultimately challenge Arati, defend his Senate seat or support a negotiated arrangement involving his allies?
For Machogu, whose national profile rose during his tenure as Education Cabinet Secretary, the discussions could offer an avenue to maintain his influence in Kisii politics. Magara would bring his own political networks and experience as a former legislator and party leader.
Whether the talks produce a formal coalition will depend on the leaders’ ability to reconcile their ambitions and agree on a common electoral strategy.
Gichana and Onyonka: A history of rivalry and reconciliation
Gichana is no stranger to Kisii’s turbulent political arena.
He contested the Kitutu Chache South parliamentary seat against Onyonka in the 2013 General Election, establishing an electoral rivalry that would later form part of their complicated political relationship.
Gichana also attracted national attention following his prolonged detention in Tanzania. Reports at the time indicated that he had spent close to six years in Tanzanian police custody before returning to Kenya in 2018.
His return revived speculation about his political future and whether he would make another attempt at elective office.
The two politicians subsequently announced a reconciliation after years of differences, suggesting that their relationship had moved beyond their earlier rivalry.
A possible Senate contest would therefore mark a new chapter in a relationship characterised by political competition and rapprochement.
Their shared clan background could feature prominently in local political discussions, although its actual electoral significance would depend on voter priorities, campaign structures and each candidate’s ability to attract support beyond immediate clan networks.
For Gichana, an ODM ticket would offer a route into a contest involving a party with an established presence in Kisii. But securing the nomination could prove difficult if other influential aspirants enter the race.
Ongwae’s silent calculations
Former Kisii Governor James Ongwae is another figure whose possible entry could reshape the Senate contest.
Ongwae, who served as governor for two terms between 2013 and 2022, remains a recognisable figure in the county’s political landscape. His experience and established networks could make him a consequential contender if he decides to seek elective office.
Although speculation has linked him to the Senate race, he has yet to publicly declare his intentions.
His next move could depend on the direction of the wider political negotiations, the strength of competing aspirants and the opportunities available within the emerging alliances.
A Senate bid would place him in a potentially crowded field involving Gichana and other politicians whose ambitions could become clearer as the election approaches.
Alternatively, Ongwae could pursue another political path depending on how the contest for the county’s leading positions unfolds.
For now, his candidacy remains unconfirmed. Nevertheless, his eventual decision could influence the calculations of other aspirants, particularly those seeking to build alliances around established political figures.
ODM nomination could determine the outcome
The direction ODM takes as it prepares for the 2027 elections could prove decisive in shaping the Kisii Senate race.
Gichana’s reported interest, Onyonka’s competing electoral ambitions and the possibility of Ongwae entering the contest could turn the party nomination into a struggle between rival political networks.
The reported coalition discussions involving Onyonka, Machogu and Magara add another dimension, potentially reshaping alliances across the county.
The Senate and gubernatorial contests are closely intertwined. Decisions made in one race could influence the other, particularly if leading aspirants negotiate support or seek to prevent their rivals from consolidating political influence.
If Onyonka ultimately prioritises the governorship, the Senate seat could become the focus of a separate battle among aspirants seeking to succeed him.
If he changes course and decides to defend his Senate seat, the contest could take an entirely different direction, potentially intensifying competition for the ODM ticket.
For Gichana, the immediate challenge is to establish the strength of his candidacy, clarify his political strategy and demonstrate that he can compete beyond the declaration of his ambitions.
For Ongwae, the question is whether he will enter the race or remain on the sidelines as alliances take shape. Machogu and Magara, meanwhile, could become influential players if their reported negotiations with Onyonka yield a broader political arrangement.
A fluid political landscape ahead of 2027
What is emerging in Kisii is a political contest in which public declarations may not tell the whole story.
Old rivalries, former friendships, clan connections and coalition negotiations are converging as the county’s leading politicians position themselves for the next General Election.
Gichana’s entry could complicate Onyonka’s calculations, but the extent of its impact remains uncertain. Much will depend on whether Gichana can build a competitive campaign, whether ODM can manage competing ambitions and whether the county’s established political figures decide to contest directly or negotiate a common front.
The eventual entry or withdrawal of Ongwae could further alter the balance, while the outcome of the reported coalition talks could determine how political support is distributed across the county’s major races.
Ultimately, the battle for Kisii’s Senate seat may be decided not simply by the number of aspirants declaring their interest, but by the alliances they forge, the party tickets they secure and their ability to translate political influence into votes.
As 2027 approaches, the central question is whether Kisii’s leading politicians will pursue separate ambitions or negotiate an arrangement that reshapes the county’s political balance.
