Political Parties Draw Strongest Support From Leaders’ Home Regions, Except UDA – TIFA Poll

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The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and Wiper continue to enjoy strong support in regions associated with their political bases, according to a new opinion poll by TIFA Research.

The latest survey, dubbed Kenya’s Road to the 2027 General Election and released on July 24, 2026, shows that ODM enjoys its strongest support in Nyanza, where it is backed by 47 per cent of respondents.

Wiper follows in Lower Eastern with 45 per cent support, while UDA records its highest backing in the Central Rift, where it commands 43 per cent support.

TIFA noted that the regional concentration of support for most major political parties largely reflects the traditional home areas of their leaders.

UDA, however, differs from this pattern, with the party recording significant popularity in Northern Kenya.

The poll also found that 28 per cent of Kenyans do not identify with any political party.

According to TIFA, the high number of people who do not associate themselves with political parties points to the limited relevance of such organisations to a significant section of the population, despite the 2027 General Election being slightly more than a year away.

Meanwhile, support for the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) has recorded significant growth over the past year.

The party’s support rose from six per cent to a peak of 15 per cent in May 2026 before falling slightly to 12 per cent in June.

Among Kenyans who support political parties, 44 per cent said they are formal members of the parties they support.

UDA recorded the highest proportion of supporters who also identify as party members at 59 per cent, followed by ODM at 45 per cent.

DCP, one of the newer political parties, recorded the lowest proportion of supporters who said they were formal members, at 34 per cent.

“Among all those who support any political party nearly half (44%) claim to be actual members. Among the five main/most popular parties, UDA has the highest proportion of supporters who claim membership (59%), followed by ODM (45%), while DCP (newest party) has the fewest (34%),” the report said.

TIFA noted that it remains unclear whether formal party membership will increase as the country moves closer to the 2027 General Election.

The poll also examined why some Kenyans do not identify with any political party.

The most common reason, cited by 29 per cent of respondents, was a lack of interest in politics and elections.

Another 22 per cent said they wanted to wait and see the candidates that political parties will field in the 2027 elections, including their presidential candidates.

Meanwhile, 19 per cent said they believed that all political parties were corrupt or ineffective and did not care about ordinary citizens.

Some respondents also said the political parties they previously supported had changed their policies or leadership in ways that disappointed them.

The survey found that 20 per cent of respondents who did not support any political party did not provide a clear reason, while two per cent declined to answer.

The TIFA poll also examined political divisions within ODM and found that 74 per cent of the party’s supporters back the Linda Mwananchi grouping.

Support for the rival Linda Ground, also known as the “Tuko Tayari” faction, was relatively low in most regions.

According to TIFA, support for Linda Ground ranged from zero per cent in Lower Eastern, where Wiper has a strong presence, to 40 per cent in Nyanza.

The pollster, however, cautioned that the figures in some regions were based on relatively small sample sizes, resulting in wider statistical margins of error.