The race for the African Union Commission (AUC) Chairmanship is intensifying, and Raila Odinga, a prominent leader with a storied political career, is in the spotlight.
Winning this crucial position requires securing a majority of the votes, and with 47 eligible countries participating, Odinga’s path to victory is clear but challenging.
The Path to Victory: 50% of the Vote
To win the AUC Chairmanship, Raila Odinga needs to secure 50% of the total votes, which amounts to 24 out of the 47 eligible countries. This threshold is the key to clinching the leadership, and Odinga’s campaign strategy must be meticulously planned to achieve it.
Solid Support from East Africa
East Africa (Burundi included), with its 14 eligible voting countries, offers a strong foundation for Odinga. As a leader with deep roots in the region, securing the support of all 14 East African nations can provide him with a significant head start.
The unity and alignment of these nations could serve as a powerful voting bloc in his favour.
Strategic Alliances: Nigeria, South Africa, Ivory Coast, and DRC
Beyond East Africa, Odinga is strategically positioned to leverage his long-standing relationships with key influential countries across the continent. He can easily secure votes from:
- Nigeria: Leveraging his close relationship with former President Olusegun Obasanjo, a respected elder statesman in Nigerian politics, Odinga can likely count on Nigeria’s support.
- South Africa: Odinga has maintained a long-term friendship with President Cyril Ramaphosa, making South Africa a crucial ally in his bid for the Chairmanship.
- Ivory Coast: Odinga’s friendship with President Alassane Ouattara of Ivory Coast adds another solid vote to his tally, reflecting the depth of their diplomatic ties.
- Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC): As the DRC continues its integration into the East African Community, it aligns closely with Odinga’s regional vision, making it a natural supporter in this election.
These alliances bring his total to 18 votes, providing a strong base as he moves forward in the race.
These countries are pivotal not only because of their voting power but also due to their regional influence, which could sway other nations to support their candidacy.
The Final Push: 6 More Votes Needed
With 18 votes in hand, Odinga is 6 votes shy of the critical 24-vote threshold. The remaining eligible countries are spread across various regions:
- Central Africa: 7 eligible countries
- Northern Africa: 6 eligible countries
- Southern Africa: 10 eligible countries
- Western Africa: 11 eligible countries
Recent political instability has led to the removal of several countries from the voting pool due to coups.
The countries that will not participate in the vote are:
- Chad: Suspended since April 2021 following a military transition after President Idriss Déby’s death.
- Gabon: Suspended since August 2023 after a military coup overthrew President Ali Bongo Ondimba.
- Libya: Suspended since February 2011 due to ongoing civil unrest following the fall of Muammar Gaddafi.
- Sudan: Suspended since October 2021 due to a military coup that dissolved the transitional government.
- Burkina Faso: Suspended since January 2022 after a military coup overthrew President Roch Marc Christian Kaboré.
- Guinea: Suspended since September 2021 following a military coup that ousted President Alpha Condé.
- Mali: Suspended twice, first in August 2020 and again in May 2021, due to military coups.
- Niger: Suspended since July 2023 following a military coup that overthrew President Mohamed Bazoum.
These countries have already been excluded from the total, maintaining the voting pool at 47 eligible countries. Thus, the majority required to win remains 50% of 47, which equals 24 votes.
Odinga, with 18 likely votes already secured, is positioned just 6 votes shy of the required threshold.
By strategically targeting a few more countries, his victory can be solidified.
The AU is made up of 55 Member States which represent all the countries on the African continent.
The AU Member States are divided into five geographic regions. which were defined by the OAU in 1976 (CM/Res.464QCXVI).
Here’s the updated list of African Union (AU) member countries eligible to vote with those excluded due to coups removed:
Central Africa
1. Burundi (more East African)
2. Cameroon
3. Central African Republic
4. Congo Republic
5. DR Congo
6. Equatorial Guinea
7. São Tomé and Príncipe
Total: 7 countries (Chad and Gabon removed)
Eastern Africa
1. Comoros
2. Djibouti
3. Eritrea
4. Ethiopia
5. Kenya
6. Madagascar
7. Mauritius
8. Rwanda
9. Seychelles
10. Somalia
11. South Sudan
12. Tanzania
13. Uganda
Total: 13 countries (Sudan removed)
Northern Africa
1. Algeria
2. Egypt
3. Mauritania
4. Morocco
5. Sahrawi Republic
6. Tunisia
Total: 6 countries (Libya removed)
Southern Africa
1. Angola
2. Botswana
3. Eswatini
4. Lesotho
5. Malawi
6. Mozambique
7. Namibia
8. South Africa
9. Zambia
10. Zimbabwe
Total: 10 countries
Western Africa
1. Benin
2. Cabo Verde
3. Côte d’Ivoire
4. Gambia
5. Ghana
6. Guinea-Bissau
7. Liberia
8. Niger
9. Senegal
10. Sierra Leone
11. Togo
Total: 11 countries (Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali, and Niger removed)
Summary of Total Numbers
– Central Africa: 7
– Eastern Africa: 13
– Northern Africa: 6
– Southern Africa: 10
– Western Africa: 11
Total Number of Eligible Voting AU Member States: 47
Conclusion
Raila Odinga’s path to the AUC Chairmanship is within reach, but it requires careful navigation of alliances and regional politics. With 14 votes likely secured from East Africa and key votes from Nigeria, South Africa, Ivory Coast, and DRC, Odinga is only 6 votes away from achieving the majority needed to win. By focusing on a few additional countries, his victory is well within grasp.