TIFA: nearly three-quarters of Kenyans say country is headed in wrong direction

Nearly three-quarters of Kenyans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, according to a new survey released by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) on June 4, 2026.

The findings paint a picture of growing public dissatisfaction amid economic challenges, concerns over the rising cost of living, and declining confidence in the country’s trajectory.

According to the survey, economic sentiment remains fragile, with nearly two-thirds of households reporting that they are worse off than they were at the time of the last General Election.

While the proportion of Kenyans reporting deteriorating economic conditions has gradually declined over time, TIFA noted that the gains have been modest and have yet to translate into meaningful improvements in the daily lives of many households.

“Public sentiment has shifted decisively negative, with nearly three-quarters of Kenyans now saying the country is heading in the wrong direction,” the report states.

The survey found that 74 per cent of Kenyans believe the country is moving in the wrong direction, compared to only 14 per cent who feel it is headed in the right direction.

Regionally, residents of the Northern and Central Rift regions expressed the most positive outlook, although fewer than half held such views. Positive ratings stood at 33 per cent in Northern Kenya and 26 per cent in Central Rift.

On the other hand, the strongest negative sentiments were recorded in the Mt Kenya region, where 89 per cent of respondents said the country was headed in the wrong direction. This was followed by Lower Eastern at 85 per cent and Nairobi at 76 per cent.

Broad-Based Government Influence

The survey also examined perceptions of the country’s direction based on attitudes toward the Broad-Based Government (BBG) arrangement between President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga.

Among respondents who support the BBG, 58 per cent said the country is headed in the wrong direction. However, the figure rose sharply to 83 per cent among those opposed to the arrangement.

Negative perceptions were also prevalent among respondents who had no opinion on the BBG or declined to express one, with 78 per cent saying the country is moving in the wrong direction compared to just 6 per cent who felt otherwise.

Similarly, among those unaware of the BBG arrangement, 72 per cent held a negative view of the country’s direction, compared to 15 per cent who expressed a positive outlook.

Economic Reality Driving Public Mood

TIFA noted a strong link between personal economic circumstances and perceptions of the country’s direction.

Among respondents who said their economic situation had improved over the past four years, 36 per cent believed Kenya was headed in the right direction, compared to only 4 per cent who felt it was headed in the wrong direction.

However, among those who reported that their economic circumstances had worsened, 88 per cent said the country was moving in the wrong direction, while only 52 per cent believed it was headed in the right direction.

The report observed that despite improved personal finances for some Kenyans, a majority still held negative views about the country’s direction, suggesting that factors beyond individual economic experiences are shaping public opinion.

When asked to identify the country’s most serious problem, 70 per cent of respondents cited economic issues.

Inflation and the high cost of living accounted for 47 per cent of responses, while unemployment and poverty were cited by 23 per cent.

Corruption was ranked as the third most pressing issue, attracting 21 per cent of responses.

Other concerns received less than 3 per cent of mentions, underscoring the dominance of economic challenges in the minds of most Kenyans.

The survey further found that 75 per cent of Kenyans believe the government was not justified in increasing fuel prices in April.

However, supporters of the Broad-Based Government were more likely to support the move than its critics, with 31 per cent expressing understanding for the increase compared to 17 per cent among BBG opponents.

Among the 96 per cent of respondents who said they would be affected by the fuel price increase, the most commonly cited impacts were higher food prices (72 per cent) and increased transport costs (69 per cent).