Venezuelans will head to the polls on Sunday for what is considered the most significant challenge to the governing socialist PSUV party in 25 years. President Nicolás Maduro, who has been in power since Hugo Chávez’s death in 2013, is seeking a third consecutive term. His main rival is Edmundo González, a former diplomat backed by a coalition of opposition parties.
Polls indicate that González holds a substantial lead over Maduro, but concerns about election integrity loom large. Maduro’s 2018 re-election was widely criticized as neither free nor fair, raising fears that the current election might also be manipulated if it does not favor Maduro. These fears are compounded by Maduro’s declaration that he would win “by hook or by crook.”
The situation is further complicated by the limited presence of independent election observers—only four from the United Nations and a small technical team from the Carter Center. The head of the electoral authority, a close ally of Maduro, revoked invitations to European Union observers and former Argentine President Alberto Fernández, who had advocated for a fair election.
In contrast, Maduro has welcomed numerous guests from allied countries to “accompany” the vote. The opposition has mobilized thousands of people to monitor individual ballot stations despite facing significant hurdles, including harassment and the arrest of over 100 campaign-related individuals.
Despite these challenges, the opposition remains optimistic, arguing that González’s lead in the polls makes it improbable for Maduro to “steal the election.” However, the government dismisses these polls, claiming its own candidate is ahead.
Maduro’s rhetoric has been stark, warning of a “bloodbath” if he is defeated. This statement drew a rare rebuke from Brazil’s left-wing leader, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who advised Maduro that losing should mean stepping down. Maduro has employed the image of a fighting cockerel in his campaign, declaring that his administration has weathered numerous challenges and will continue to do so.
Previously, Maduro’s government faced an attempted ousting by opposition leader Juan Guaidó, supported by over 50 countries including the US and EU. However, Maduro’s loyalty from Venezuelan security forces helped him retain power, portraying himself as a defender of Venezuelan sovereignty.
This election is notable for being the first in over a decade where most of the opposition has united behind a single candidate, following María Corina Machado’s disqualification. They have quickly rallied around 74-year-old Edmundo González. The opposition promises to reverse the country’s dire political and economic crisis and allow millions of Venezuelans who fled to return if they win.
The election outcome will be closely monitored by the US and Latin American countries with large Venezuelan expatriate communities, as well as by allies of the Maduro administration, including Cuba, China, Iran, and Russia. A win for González could shift Venezuela’s alliances away from these countries towards the US. González has pledged to restore democracy and challenge the PSUV’s long-standing control over the executive, legislative, and judicial branches.
Election results are expected to be announced on the same night by the CNE, which is criticized for its government loyalty. The new president will be sworn into office on January 10, 2025
Via BBC
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