Support for the Broad-Based Government (BBG) arrangement between President William Ruto and the late former Prime Minister Raila Odinga is facing growing resistance, particularly among supporters of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), according to a new survey released by Trends and Insights for Africa on June 4, 2026.
The survey indicates that while the BBG initially gained traction following the June 2024 Gen-Z protests, uncertainty surrounding its future has intensified as the country prepares for the 2027 General Election.
According to TIFA, the growing disquiet stems from questions over whether the arrangement was intended as a temporary political solution to stabilize the Kenya Kwanza administration or a long-term political alliance that could extend into the next election cycle.
“The party will have to decide whether it was only a short-term measure to shore up the Kenya Kwanza government’s legitimacy in the wake of the massive June 2024 Gen-Z protests, or a longer-term arrangement involving pre-election cooperation and possible power-sharing should President Ruto secure a second term,” the report states.
The survey highlights divisions within ODM following the leadership transition after Raila Odinga’s death. While Raila’s elder brother, Oburu Odinga, has publicly backed the continuation of the BBG, a faction led by Edwin Sifuna, alongside James Orengo and Godfrey Osotsi, has opposed both the process and substance of the leadership succession.
The dissenting leaders boycotted a recent ODM conference in Mombasa, insisting that only a National Delegates Conference has the authority to determine Raila Odinga’s successor.
TIFA notes that beyond the leadership dispute, the faction’s primary concern is ODM’s continued cooperation with UDA and the Kenya Kwanza coalition under the BBG framework.
The report points to repeated calls by leaders allied to Oburu Odinga for President Ruto’s re-election, as well as remarks by the Head of State suggesting that ODM and UDA would remain politically aligned before and after the 2027 elections.
Questions have also emerged over the implementation of the 10-point agenda signed between Ruto and Odinga in March 2025. While some leaders argue the agreement has yielded progress, others claim little has been achieved and question the government’s commitment to its implementation.
TIFA says the disagreements have fueled frequent public rallies by rival ODM factions, with leaders openly criticizing one another and presenting conflicting interpretations of Raila Odinga’s intentions regarding the BBG and the next presidential election.
At the same time, President Ruto has intensified political tours in traditional ODM strongholds, including Nyanza, Western and Coast regions, in an effort to strengthen support for the broad-based arrangement.
“The eventual status of the BBG remains uncertain, whether or not ODM can hold together,” the report notes.
The survey also identifies former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua as a significant factor in the evolving political landscape.
According to TIFA, Gachagua has maintained sustained criticism of the government following his impeachment and removal from office. The report notes that some of his political engagements have been marred by violence involving his supporters and, in some cases, alleged police involvement.
The poll further points to uncertainty surrounding Gachagua’s ongoing legal challenge against his impeachment. Although a recent High Court ruling provided temporary relief, Gachagua has indicated that he is seeking compensation and the removal of restrictions preventing him from holding public office rather than reinstatement.
Survey findings show that opposition to the BBG currently outweighs support among Kenyans.
According to TIFA, 56 percent of respondents oppose the arrangement compared to 30 percent who support it. Another 13 percent expressed no opinion, while a small percentage said they were unaware of the coalition.
The findings represent a decline in support compared to TIFA’s November 2025 survey, when support had risen to 44 percent. Opposition has meanwhile increased from 48 percent to 56 percent.
The poll suggests that Kenya’s political landscape remains fluid as parties reposition themselves ahead of the 2027 elections and as ODM navigates leadership changes following Raila Odinga’s departure from active politics.
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