Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola is expected to deploy an unusual 4-1-3-2 formation for the Carabao Cup final against Arsenal at Wembley, with Rodri stationed as the lone defensive midfielder.
Ahead of him, Bernardo Silva will anchor the central midfield, while Nico O’Reilly occupies the left side and Rayan Cherki, Antoine Semenyo, or Phil Foden operates on the right.
Up front, Erling Haaland will lead the line, partnered with either Semenyo or Omar Marmoush. The setup is bold, fluid, and narrow, allowing City to dominate central areas, though it leaves their full-backs exposed when possession is lost—a vulnerability Arsenal may look to exploit.
Pep Guardiola could also revert to a more pragmatic 4-5-1 formation, similar to the one used at Emirates Stadium in September when City had just 33.2% possession.
City have improved their pressing this season, forcing 52 shot-ending high turnovers—the highest in the Premier League—but remain vulnerable on set-pieces, conceding nine goals from 82 shots. With City likely to field deputy Trafford in goal, Arsenal will aim to capitalize on any uncertainty from dead-ball situations.
Historically, Manchester City have a strong record in League Cup finals, winning eight of their nine appearances. They have claimed victory in each of their last seven finals, dating back to a loss against Wolves in 1974. Their last win over Arsenal in a League Cup final came in 2018.
Individual player matchups add further intrigue. Haaland has scored in each of his last three games against Arsenal but has yet to find the net in six appearances at Wembley. Rayan Cherki has contributed four goals in four League Cup appearances for City, averaging a goal involvement every 47 minutes. On Arsenal’s side, Eberechi Eze could join the ranks of players to score in both a League Cup and FA Cup final, while Gabriel Martinelli has either scored or assisted in each of his last three outings against City.
Rodri has a strong record against Arsenal, losing just once in 14 appearances since joining City in 2019, with the last four meetings ending in draws.
Referee Peter Bankes will oversee the final, assisted by Neil Davies and Steve Meredith, with Tom Bramall as fourth official. VAR duties will be handled by John Brooks and Dan Robathan. Bankes has officiated 12 City matches, with mixed results, while recently overseeing Arsenal’s North London derby victory.
Ahead of the final, Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta emphasized the importance of winning trophies:
“It’s one of the defining moments because at the end, it’s whether you win the trophy or not – that’s the most important thing. To be in the final, we’ve had to earn it, and we are excited for what it means for the team and our fans.”
Guardiola acknowledged the challenge of facing Arsenal at Wembley:
“We have got to Wembley 22 times in 10 years; it’s an honour and a big challenge. Arsenal are an exceptional team. It’s a big moment for our squad and a huge opportunity to test ourselves against one of the best sides in Europe.”
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