Global Concerns Rise as U.S. Democracy Faces Potential Turmoil in Upcoming Presidential Election

In a recent report, The Economist voiced apprehension about the implications of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on November 5, 2024, underlining the potential impact of a divided America on international stability. Eurasia Group, a U.S.-based research firm, identified “the United States vs. itself” as the top risk in its list of global risks for 2024, predicting internal confrontations that could hinder the country’s role as a responsible global superpower.

Amidst elections scheduled in over 70 countries worldwide, the U.S. election stands out as a pivotal event with significant consequences for the future of liberal international order. Key players, including South Korea, India, Mexico, and the European Parliament, are set to hold elections, but the focus remains on the U.S. presidential race, expected to be a rematch between 81-year-old incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.

Despite being early in the race, Trump has garnered substantial support, with an average approval rating of 63% in recent polls, indicating a potential comeback. The deep political divide following the 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol persists, with 69% of Republicans questioning the legitimacy of Biden’s 2020 election win, fueling concerns about the country’s internal unity.

International implications loom large, particularly for U.S. allies like Japan, as a Trump victory could reshape diplomatic and defense policies. Former national security adviser John Bolton warned of potential irreparable damage, highlighting Trump’s tendency for personal revenge and disregard for the rule of law. The impact on alliances, such as NATO, and engagements in Ukraine and Taiwan, could lead to global turmoil.

Also Read: Donald Trump Does Not Have Presidential Immunity, US Court Rules 

Two possible scenarios emerge for the international order and Japan-U.S. relations if Trump secures victory. The first involves building a close relationship with Trump, similar to the approach taken by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, while the second envisions like-minded countries cooperating to maintain a liberal international order without relying heavily on the U.S.

Regardless of whether Biden secures another term or Trump returns, a trend toward increased U.S. political division and inward-looking policies is anticipated. Japan, as a key U.S. ally, must bolster efforts to navigate this changing landscape, fostering stronger ties with like-minded nations and emphasizing self-reliance in diplomacy and national security planning.

As the world closely watches the U.S. presidential election, its outcome is poised to significantly shape the future not only for America but also for global allies like Japan, emphasizing the need for robust international cooperation beyond traditional alliances.