The Government has identified 18 counties considered highly vulnerable to the effects of a potentially strong El Niño event expected to bring above-normal rainfall from October.
The Kenya Meteorological Service has warned of an increased likelihood of a strong El Niño developing, with an 81 per cent probability that the phenomenon will be strong and a 97 per cent chance that its effects will persist into early next year.
In preparation, the Government has mapped areas exposed to risks including flash floods, landslides, drought, disease outbreaks, displacement and infrastructure damage.
The national risk assessment prepared by the National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC) places counties in the Coast, Lake Basin, Rift Valley and North Eastern regions among those facing the highest levels of vulnerability.
Nairobi, Mombasa and Kisumu have also been identified as high-risk urban centres because of their exposure to flooding, drainage blockages, pressure on infrastructure and disruption of essential services.
Coast Region
In the Coast region, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, Mombasa and Kwale are at risk of flooding, storm surges, coastal erosion and infrastructure damage.
The assessment warns that flooding could result in the displacement of residents in some areas.
Lake Basin
Kisumu, Busia, Siaya, Homa Bay and Migori are expected to face flooding, landslides, disease outbreaks and possible displacement.
Authorities are particularly concerned about the impact of heavy rains on settlements and infrastructure in vulnerable areas.
Rift Valley
In the Rift Valley, Turkana, Baringo, West Pokot and Narok have been identified as vulnerable to a range of hazards, including flash floods, landslides, livestock losses, drought and food insecurity.
North Eastern
Garissa, Wajir and Mandera may experience water scarcity, livestock losses, poor pasture and food insecurity, with authorities also monitoring the possibility of drought-related impacts.
The Government said the counties have been prioritised in emergency response planning based on their vulnerability to the anticipated weather conditions.
More areas could be added to the list if further assessments by experts identify additional locations at risk.
The National Emergency Multi-Agency and County Emergency Response teams have been placed on high alert and are being sensitised on their roles and responsibilities as the country prepares for the expected weather conditions.
Authorities have urged relevant agencies to strengthen preparedness and response mechanisms to minimise loss of lives, displacement and damage to property and critical infrastructure.
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