Is Raila Seriously Planning to run for Homa Bay Senate Seat or He is Fooling Jubilee?

CORD leader Raila Odinga has been endorsed by some elders as the candidate for the Homa Bay senate seat left vacant after the death of Otieno Kajwang’. The CORD principal, a political master schemer, is said to have openly differed with ODM Chairman John Mbadi, Secretary General Ababu Namwamba and a host of key CORD allied politicians including Siaya Senator James Orengo over his decision to vie in Homa Bay.

Mama Ida Odinga reportedly advised Raila against running for the seat, the CORD luminary has insisted that nothing will make him change his mind. News of Raila planning to run for the seat started filtering in after the burial of Otieno Kajwang’. Raila sent various emissaries to test waters with calls that he run. The ODM legislators who met at Kibra MP Ken Okoth’s house were part of the team sent out to test the waters.

The second leg of testing waters will happen today with key MPs who were present at this weekend’s meeting at Raila’s Opoda farm are going to endorse Raila saying that it is the Homa Bay voters who want to see Raila become the senator. But that would be further from the truth as none of the MPs at the meeting supported the idea. It is not clear which Homa Bay people Raila talked to but none have visited him to express that desire.

But Raila can also be playing serious political games with Jubilee. After the theft of his second Presidential win, Raila has resigned to the fact that Jubilee leaders and mostly Kikuyu politicians hate him with a passion. They would do anything to stop his ascendency to the throne as they fear him recovering any loot they might have illegally amassed during their 50 years rule and influence on power.

So what Raila has done especially starting from the botched ODM polls early this year is to deploy decoys whenever there is a political contest he has so much interest in. During the botched ODM polls at Kasarani, Raila’s leadership in ODM was threatened by Central Kenya and Rift Valley delages who were all bribed by Jubilee to vote for Simba Arati. NIS also influenced some Coast and Eastern delegates that Raila’s leadership was written as gone. Key advisers of Raila discovered this and so the team deployed the Men In Black to scuttle the process. Raila was told to act ignorant and so his leadership in ODM was properly secured after the intervention of Men In Black.

The second instance Raila deployed his political decoy mechanism was during the ‘acrimonious’ Zani and Ababu contest. It was popularly assumed that Agnes Zani was Raila’s choice for ODM Secretary General. Few knew that Raila was for Ababu Namwamba who was thought to be a rebel and Jubilee mole. Few Western Kenya politicians are as close to Raila as Jenerali Ababu Tawfiq Namwamba. Few get the ears of Raila like he does. So even Ababu’s daliance with the Jubilee ogres has never made Raila shy from listening to him and having him as a confidant.

Other Luhya politicians like Wycliffe Oparanya and Paul Otuoma hoped to be Raila’s point man in Luhya land but that might never happen as they don’t have the gusto of Ababu.

At yesterday’s Opoda meeting, Jakom was literally shouting leaders holding different thoughts down. Gladys Wanga, John Mbadi, Hesborn Awiti and Junet Mohammed all tried their best baba Fidel gave them a piece of his mind. So an ODM team has been detailed to organise a mock nominations this Thursday. All all delegates and other contestants have all been roped into plans to form an ‘electoral college’ that will unanimously declare Raila the candidate unopposed.

But rebels will emerge. The rebels might just be who Raila wants.  The top politicians who were at Opoda reached out to Mama Ida Odinga to convince Jakom to drop the idea. Ida told the group that she has been sidelined from the recent decision of Jakom and she opposed the idea from the start. Ida even opposed yesterday’s Opoda meeting.

The group also tried to speak to Gitobu Imanyara, Maalim Mohammed and former AG Charles Njonjo to talk him out of it. Raila reportedly refused to pick Farah Maalim’s phone, saying he is a rebel, while Imanyara said he is on leave from politics and Njonio said that he will try talk to him today.

Raila asked the MPs opposed to him joining the senate if they will agree to share with him their salaries and allowances since he is using his savings to do politics. He also told them that he needs a platform to further fund-raise for 2017 general elctions. He gave strict instructions to Gladys, Awiti and Mbadi to call all delegates and current contestants and have them endorse Raila. The group will report to him on Wednesday evening if plans are complete for the Homabay Toursit Hotel meeting.

Raila clinging on the death of a legislator to get back to elective politics will be a very desperate move. If Raila was as influential as is thought, getting key legislators to resign for him would not be hard. He thought of this after the 2013 elections but he thought that IEBC would rig others against him in Nairobi or Kisumu. Thoughts of him going back to contest in Bondo were shelved at initial stages.

Thoughst to have Raila run in the seat didn’t start with Raila or anyone in CORD. It started from State House. Key social media assistants started to spread news a week before the burial of Otieno Kajwang’. Most enthusiastic supporters of the idea are people who are in Jubilee or close to the President or DP Ruto. Should he run for the seat, Raila will have reduced his stature to the level where Jubilee leaders would send their lieutenants to embarrass him. His current public image of a respected statesman would be diminished as Africans would view him just like an old man so desperate to get to his youthful years that he goes to sleep in his son’s house, Simba.

But people close to Nairobi Governor Evans Kidero have organised various anti-Raila candidature demonstrations in Homabay, Oyugis, Rangwe, Ndhiwa, Mbita, Rodi Kopany and Kendu Bay. The demonstrations will happen tomorrow.

Tweets from Jubilee supporters 3 days after the death of Otieno Kajwang’ urging Raila to stand for senate.

Breaking news: Raila Odinga will vie as Homa Bay Senator to succeed Otieno Kajwang http://t.co/aXGHpk30Rc

— Jesse Murithi (@jesmur) November 23, 2014

I guess the constitution allows Raila Odinga to vie for Homa Bay senator. I want raila to push for referendum… http://t.co/3eFMlUcDOx — tweet to joe_m (@joegitha) November 20, 2014

Oooh this should be fun, Raila considering to run for Homa Bay Senate seat. http://t.co/N8WbAvKKCv

— Polycarp Hinga ® (@P_Hinga) November 19, 2014

Since Murkomen thinks that crystal balls are overrated, my Titanium balls tells me that Raila is just deploying his political decoys in the Homa Bay contest. He is not seriously considering it.