President William Ruto remains the most popular potential presidential candidate ahead of the 2027 General Election, but a new TIFA Research poll suggests that the Opposition still has significant room to challenge his re-election bid.
The latest TIFA survey shows that Ruto enjoys the support of 24 per cent of Kenyans when asked about their preferred presidential candidate. However, the pollster noted that the figure includes Kenyans who may not be registered or likely to vote.
According to TIFA, the distribution of support among Ruto’s potential challengers also shows that each candidate has limited backing outside their traditional political strongholds.
The pollster said it remains unclear how much support associated with various Opposition leaders would shift to a single candidate if the Opposition settles on one presidential contender.
The situation is further complicated by uncertainty surrounding the political future of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, whose eligibility to contest remains linked to the outcome of his ongoing legal challenge against his 2024 impeachment.
The survey also compared presidential preferences between Kenyans who said they were registered voters and those who were not.
Ruto received support from 24 per cent of registered voters, compared with 20 per cent among those who were not registered.
Former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka also performed better among registered voters, receiving 13 per cent support compared with 10 per cent among unregistered respondents.
However, 24 per cent of unregistered respondents said they were undecided about their preferred presidential candidate, compared with 19 per cent of registered voters.
TIFA noted that the higher level of uncertainty among unregistered voters could be linked to their lower motivation to decide on a preferred candidate before registering to vote.
The poll also tracked changes in presidential preferences following the death of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga.
While President Ruto’s support has remained relatively stable, Kalonzo’s rating has declined significantly, falling from 25 per cent in November to 13 per cent in the latest survey.
Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, meanwhile, has recorded a significant rise in support, increasing from 10 per cent in May to 15 per cent.
The poll also showed a decline in support for Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, whose rating fell from eight per cent in November to two per cent in the latest survey.
TIFA suggested that some of Babu Owino’s previous supporters may have shifted their support to Sifuna.
Support for Gachagua has also declined slightly, with TIFA noting that his political standing could have been affected by his unsuccessful attempt to overturn his impeachment as Deputy President in the High Court, although he has indicated that he intends to appeal the decision.
The poll further examined presidential preferences among supporters of the country’s main political parties.
The findings showed strong support for specific presidential candidates among supporters of some parties.
Kalonzo enjoys the support of 90 per cent of ODM supporters, while 84 per cent of UDA supporters back President Ruto.
In Jubilee, 73 per cent of supporters prefer former Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i.
Support for Sifuna among ODM supporters and Gachagua among DCP supporters was lower, at 44 per cent in both cases.
TIFA noted that Sifuna has not expressed interest in running for president, while Gachagua’s eligibility to contest remains uncertain because of his impeachment and the ongoing legal proceedings challenging his removal.
Among Kenyans who oppose Ruto’s re-election, the poll found divided views on the role Gachagua should play in the 2027 presidential contest.
About 33 per cent believe Ruto is most likely to be defeated if Gachagua is allowed to contest but chooses to support another candidate.
Another 29 per cent believe Ruto could be defeated if Gachagua backs another candidate even if he is barred from contesting.
Only 14 per cent believe Gachagua himself could defeat Ruto, assuming he is allowed to contest.
Meanwhile, five per cent of those opposed to Ruto’s re-election believe the President is unbeatable regardless of the actions taken by Gachagua.
Kenyans also remain divided on which Opposition leader has the best chance of defeating Ruto in the 2027 election.
“In responding to the question as to which Opposition leader would have the best chance of defeating President Ruto in next year’s election, Kenyans are quite divided, with nearly equal proportions naming Edwin Sifuna, Fred Matiang’I and Kalonzo Musyoka (18%, 18% and 16%, respectively), closely followed by Rigathi Gachagua (14%) whose eligibility to contest remains in doubt,” the report said.
The poll also identified significant differences in views between supporters and opponents of the BBG grouping.
TIFA noted that supporters of the BBG were nearly five times more likely than opponents to believe that President Ruto is unbeatable regardless of who faces him in the 2027 presidential election.
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