2024 Race: Trump vs. Harris Too Close to Call

In a recent Quinnipiac University national poll, former President Donald Trump holds a slight edge over Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential race. According to the poll, conducted from July 19 to July 21, Trump leads Harris by 49% to 47%, a margin within the poll’s margin of error, indicating a highly competitive race.

Key Poll Findings:

• Current Standings: In a head-to-head matchup, Trump narrowly leads with 49% support compared to Harris’s 47%. In a broader six-way race, Trump garners 45% of support, while Harris receives 41%. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. follows with 6%, Green Party’s Jill Stein at 2%, and both Libertarian Chase Oliver and independent Cornel West each at 1%.
• Biden’s Exit: Sixty-two per cent of voters believe that President Biden’s decision to drop out of the 2024 race was the right move. This sentiment is shared by 54% of Democrats. Biden’s job approval rating stands at a negative 39% to 57%, showing little change from previous polls.
• Democratic Preferences: Among Democratic voters, Kamala Harris leads with 45% support for the nomination, followed by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 12%, and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 11%. The support for Harris significantly outstrips other potential candidates.
• Favorability Ratings: Trump holds a 46% favourable rating, his highest since Quinnipiac began polling in May 2015. Biden’s favorability is at 38%, and Harris’s is at 37%. Other figures include J.D. Vance at 29% and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 23%.
• Views on Trump: Following the recent assassination attempt on Trump, 53% of voters say it does not affect their view of him, while 30% feel more favourably and 15% less favourably. Trump’s call for national unity post-attack has not notably shifted perceptions of him as a unifier.
• J.D. Vance’s VP Selection: Trump’s choice of J.D. Vance as his running mate is viewed positively by 46% of voters, with 33% disapproving and 21% undecided. Among Republicans, 79% approve of the selection.
• Secret Service and Gun Control: There is a divided opinion on whether the Director of the Secret Service should resign following the assassination attempt, with 47% in favour and 36% against. Similarly, views on banning AR-15 rifles are evenly split.

The Quinnipiac University Poll surveyed 1,257 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The survey reflects ongoing political tensions and the evolving dynamics of the 2024 presidential race.