A majority of Kenyans say they were satisfied with how the government handled matters surrounding the death of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, according to a new survey by research firm TIFA.
The survey shows that about 60 percent of Kenyans were satisfied with the government’s response following Raila’s death, which occurred on October 15, 2025. Odinga died of cardiac arrest at Devamatha Hospital in Koothattukulam, Kerala, India, at the age of 80.
TIFA notes that across most parts of the country, public opinion was generally positive regarding how the State managed issues such as body viewing, mourning and funeral arrangements. Only residents of the Coast region recorded a lower level of strong approval, with 49 percent saying they were “somewhat satisfied” and 11 percent saying they were “not satisfied.”
In Raila’s home region of Nyanza, satisfaction was relatively high but less emphatic, with 54 percent saying they were “very satisfied.” Similar levels were recorded in South Rift and Mt Kenya regions at 55 percent and 53 percent respectively. The highest satisfaction levels were reported in Central Rift, where 78 percent of residents said they were very satisfied, followed by Western Kenya, Northern Kenya and Nairobi at 68 percent, 65 percent and 63 percent respectively.
“Among the minority (11%) who say they were ‘not satisfied’ with the Government’s response to Raila’s passing (including body-viewing and funeral arrangements), most cited the violence and/or restrictions surrounding viewing of the body (23%) and a perceived insincerity by senior officials in contrast to how he had been treated in life (22%),” the report says.
Other respondents cited a lack of transparency around aspects of Raila’s death and the short mourning period, with 11 percent mentioning each concern. Only 3 percent said they were unhappy with the exclusion of opposition leaders from speaking at the funeral.
The survey also examined the political impact of Raila Odinga’s death ahead of the 2027 General Election. According to TIFA, many Kenyans view his passing as a challenge rather than an advantage for President William Ruto.
The findings show that 41 percent of respondents believe Raila’s death will make it harder for President Ruto to win re-election in 2027. About 30 percent say it will be easier for the president, while 10 percent are unsure.
Regional opinions differ sharply. Optimism about President Ruto’s re-election prospects is highest in Western Kenya and Nairobi, where 38 percent and 36 percent respectively say his chances have improved. In contrast, pessimism is strongest in Mt Kenya and South Rift, where 56 percent and 52 percent believe the president’s re-election bid has become more difficult.
Even in Nyanza, Raila Odinga’s home region, more respondents are pessimistic than optimistic. Forty percent say President Ruto’s re-election will now be harder, compared to 25 percent who believe it will be easier.
“Apparently based at least in part on ‘wishful thinking’, there is a clear correlation between attitudes towards the Broad-Based Government and expectations of the President’s re-election prospects in the wake of Raila’s demise,” the report states.
TIFA says supporters of the Broad-Based Government are more likely to believe President Ruto’s chances have improved. About 40 percent of BBG supporters say his prospects are better, compared to 23 percent of BBG opponents. On the other hand, 54 percent of BBG opponents believe his re-election has become more difficult, compared to 31 percent of BBG supporters. Among those with no opinion on the BBG, 35 percent said they were unsure about the impact of Raila’s absence.
The same survey shows that the Orange Democratic Movement has emerged as Kenya’s most popular political party. ODM commands 20 percent national support, narrowly ahead of the ruling United Democratic Alliance at 16 percent.
Despite remaining the two dominant parties, both ODM and UDA have lost support compared to levels recorded after the 2022 General Election. TIFA notes that no party currently has a stable or decisive support base, with voter loyalty becoming increasingly fluid ahead of by-elections and the 2027 polls.
Coalition support slightly strengthens ODM’s position. The Azimio coalition has 6 percent support, compared to 2 percent for the Kenya Kwanza coalition. Combined, parties and coalitions linked to the broad-based government account for about 44 percent of the adult population.
However, analysts caution that ODM’s popularity does not automatically translate into support for President Ruto’s 2027 re-election bid. The party has seen growing internal debate in recent months, particularly over its future direction following Raila Odinga’s reduced involvement in frontline politics.
TIFA also notes that ODM’s support has risen sharply since August, when it stood at 13 percent. The survey further shows a decline in the number of Kenyans without a party affiliation or who are undecided. Those with no party preference dropped from 31 percent to 22 percent, while undecided voters declined from 10 percent to 6 percent.
One of the biggest beneficiaries of this shift, apart from ODM, is the Jubilee Party, whose support has nearly tripled from 3 percent in August to 11 percent. According to the report, this rise may be linked to former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s renewed public involvement in party affairs and his backing of former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, now Jubilee’s Deputy Party Leader.
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