Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) has lost popularity, according to the latest opinion poll by research firm TIFA.
The survey, released on Tuesday, December 23, 2025, shows that DCP’s support dropped from 9 percent in August to 6 percent in November, a decline of three percentage points in just three months.
At the same time, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has emerged as Kenya’s most popular political party, narrowly overtaking the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA). The poll indicates that ODM currently enjoys 20 percent support nationwide, while UDA follows closely at 16 percent.
Despite remaining the two dominant parties, both ODM and UDA have lost support compared to levels recorded shortly after the 2022 General Election. TIFA notes that voter loyalty is increasingly shifting, with many Kenyans changing party preferences as the country moves closer to by-elections and the 2027 General Election.
According to the survey, no single party currently commands a stable or decisive support base, making the political landscape fluid and unpredictable.
Coalition support slightly strengthens ODM’s position. The Azimio coalition commands about 6 percent support, compared to 2 percent for the Kenya Kwanza coalition. When combined, parties and coalitions aligned under the broad-based government arrangement account for roughly 44 percent of Kenya’s adult population.
However, analysts caution that ODM’s growing popularity does not automatically translate into support for President William Ruto’s re-election bid in 2027. The party has experienced increased internal debate in recent months, particularly over its future direction and leadership following the reduced frontline political activity of long-serving party leader Raila Odinga.
ODM’s rise marks a notable shift since TIFA’s August survey, when the party stood at 13 percent. Its gains have allowed it to overtake UDA as the country’s most popular party, amid signs of rising political engagement across the country.
The poll also shows a decline in the number of Kenyans who say they have no party affiliation or are undecided. Those identifying with no party dropped from 31 percent to 22 percent, while undecided voters fell from 10 percent to 6 percent. TIFA says this trend may be linked to increased political activity ahead of late November by-elections and early positioning for the 2027 polls.
One of the main beneficiaries of this shift, apart from ODM, is the Jubilee Party. Jubilee’s support has nearly tripled from 3 percent in August to 11 percent in November. The report suggests this rise may be connected to former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s renewed public involvement in party affairs and his backing of former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, now Jubilee’s Deputy Party Leader.
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