The Kenya Meteorological Department has issued a warning of a 99% likelihood of above-average rainfall across various parts of the country as El Niño makes its return this year.
El Niño, characterized by warmer-than-average ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, is known to bring excessive rainfall and flooding to the East Africa region.
This phenomenon recurs every 3 to 5 years and has significant impacts on weather patterns.
“Heavy continuous rainfall is expected in the Lake Victoria Basin region, Kisii, Elgeyo Marakwet, Bungoma, Trans Nzoia, West Pokot, Vihiga, Laikipia, Nakuru, and Narok counties. These areas should prepare for a significant amount of rainfall beginning in September and lasting until January, with the peak expected in October,” stated weather department.
In the north-western counties of Turkana, Marsabit, and Samburu, the meteorological department expects “occasional rainfall above the long-term average for the season.”
For the highlands east of the Rift Valley, including Nairobi, officials predict “above-average rainfall throughout the season.” They assure that the rainfall will be evenly distributed in terms of space.
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The lowlands, on the other hand, are anticipated to receive “above-long-term-average rainfall.”
However, in the north-eastern counties, the forecast indicates “occasional rainfall of an amount slightly above average for the season.” Notably, Wajir and Mandera counties are expected to receive the highest amounts of rainfall.
The meteorological representative pointed out several areas likely to experience flooding, stating, “Nyakach, Nyando, lower areas of River Nzoia, Winam Gulf, and lower areas of River Sondu in Western Kenya are flooding hotspots.”
Officials have identified potential flood zones in various regions, including Gilgil, Narok town, Suswa, Mwatate, Tana River delta, and Mwatate. These areas have been designated as high-risk flood zones.
Residents have been cautioned about the risk of landslides, especially in areas with water-logged soils such as West Pokot, Kericho, Elgeyo Marakwet, Mt Elgon, Narok, Nakuru, Baringo, Murang’a, and the Kilungu area in Makueni County.
This forecast follows a three-year La Niña phase, which has transitioned into the return of El Niño. The recent La Niña phase resulted in wetter conditions in East Africa. “We are now closely monitoring the potential impacts of El Niño on the region’s weather patterns and socio-economic factors,” the representative added.
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