ODM Tops Popularity Polls as Voter Loyalty Shifts, TIFA Survey Shows

The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has emerged as Kenya’s most popular political party, narrowly beating the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA), according to the latest survey by research firm TIFA.

The poll shows that ODM enjoys 20 percent support, while UDA follows closely at 16 percent. Despite remaining the two dominant parties, support for both has dropped compared to levels recorded after the 2022 General Election. At the same time, voter loyalty appears to be shifting, with many Kenyans changing party preferences.

TIFA notes that no single party currently has a stable or decisive support base, making the political landscape increasingly fluid ahead of upcoming by-elections and the 2027 General Election.

The survey also indicates that coalition support slightly boosts ODM’s standing. The Azimio coalition commands about 6 percent support, compared to 2 percent for Kenya Kwanza. Taken together, parties and coalitions aligned under the broad-based government arrangement account for about 44 percent of the adult population.

However, analysts caution that not all ODM supporters can be assumed to back President William Ruto’s re-election bid in 2027. The party has seen growing internal debate in recent months, particularly around its future direction and leadership following long-serving party leader Raila Odinga’s reduced frontline political activity.

In a notable shift, ODM has gained ground since TIFA’s August survey, where it stood at 13 percent, overtaking UDA to become the most popular party. This rise comes as overall political engagement appears to be increasing across the country.

The poll also shows a decline in the number of Kenyans who say they have no party affiliation or are undecided. Those identifying with no party dropped from 31 percent to 22 percent, while undecided voters fell from 10 percent to 6 percent. TIFA says this may be linked to increased political activity ahead of late November by-elections and early positioning for 2027.

One of the main beneficiaries of this shift, aside from ODM, is the Jubilee Party, whose support has nearly tripled from 3 percent in August to 11 percent. The report suggests this could be linked to former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s renewed public involvement in party affairs and his backing of former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, who now serves as Jubilee’s Deputy Party Leader.