Raila’s Death Seen as Complicating Factor for Ruto’s 2027 Re-election, New Poll Shows

The death of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga is being viewed by many Kenyans as a challenge rather than a political advantage for President William Ruto ahead of the 2027 General Election, according to a new survey by research firm TIFA.

The survey shows that 41 percent of respondents believe Raila’s passing will make it more difficult for President Ruto to secure re-election in 2027. In contrast, 30 percent say it will be easier for the president to win another term, while 10 percent remain unsure.

Regional views vary sharply. Optimism about President Ruto’s re-election prospects following Raila’s death is highest in Western Kenya and Nairobi, where 38 percent and 36 percent of respondents respectively say his chances have improved. However, pessimism is strongest in the Mt Kenya and South Rift regions, where 56 percent and 52 percent of respondents believe the president’s re-election bid has become more difficult.

Notably, even in Raila Odinga’s home region of Nyanza, more people hold a pessimistic view than an optimistic one. Forty percent of respondents in the region say Ruto’s re-election will now be harder, compared to 25 percent who believe it will be easier.

“Apparently based at least in part on ‘wishful thinking’, there is a clear correlation between attitudes towards the Broad-Based Government and expectations of the President’s re-election prospects in the wake of Raila’s demise,” the report states.

According to TIFA, supporters of the Broad-Based Government (BBG) are more likely to believe that President Ruto’s chances have improved. About 40 percent of BBG supporters say his prospects are better, compared to 23 percent among BBG opponents. On the other hand, 54 percent of BBG opponents believe Ruto’s re-election has become more difficult without Raila’s presence, compared to 31 percent of BBG supporters. Among respondents with no opinion on the BBG, 35 percent said they were unsure what impact Raila’s absence would have.

The same survey shows that the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has emerged as Kenya’s most popular political party, narrowly overtaking the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA). ODM commands 20 percent support nationally, while UDA follows at 16 percent.

Despite remaining the country’s two dominant parties, both ODM and UDA have seen a decline in support compared to levels recorded shortly after the 2022 General Election. TIFA notes that no party currently enjoys a stable or decisive support base, with voter loyalty increasingly fluid as the country heads toward by-elections and the 2027 polls.

Coalition support slightly boosts ODM’s standing. The Azimio coalition enjoys 6 percent support, compared to 2 percent for the Kenya Kwanza coalition. Combined, parties and coalitions linked to the broad-based government arrangement account for about 44 percent of Kenya’s adult population.

However, analysts caution that ODM’s popularity does not automatically translate into support for President Ruto’s 2027 re-election bid. The party has experienced growing internal debate in recent months, especially over its future direction following Raila Odinga’s reduced involvement in frontline politics.

TIFA notes that ODM’s support has risen sharply since its August survey, when the party stood at 13 percent. This increase has allowed ODM to overtake UDA as the country’s most popular party, amid signs of rising political engagement nationwide.

The survey also shows a decline in the number of Kenyans who say they have no party affiliation or are undecided. Those with no party preference dropped from 31 percent to 22 percent, while undecided voters declined from 10 percent to 6 percent.

One of the key beneficiaries of this shift, apart from ODM, is the Jubilee Party. Jubilee’s support has nearly tripled from 3 percent in August to 11 percent. According to the report, this surge may be linked to former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s renewed public role in party affairs and his support for former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, now Jubilee’s Deputy Party Leader.