TIFA: 73% of ODM Supporters Back ‘Linda Mwananchi’ Faction

A new national survey has revealed deepening divisions within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), with nearly three-quarters of the party’s supporters backing the so-called “Linda Mwananchi” faction associated with Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna.

According to the latest national survey released on May 14, 2026 by the Trends and Insights For Africa (TIFA), titled Current Political Alignments and 2027 Election Prospects, about 73 per cent of Kenyans who identify ODM as the political party they support or feel closest to expressed support for the “rebel” Linda Mwananchi faction.

The survey notes that the faction has been most visibly championed by leaders allied to Sifuna, who have pushed for a more independent opposition stance and questioned ODM’s continued cooperation with the Kenya Kwanza administration under the Broad-Based Government (BBG) arrangement.

However, the findings show a more divided opinion among ODM supporters who also back the BBG arrangement. Among this group, support is nearly evenly split between the Sifuna-led faction and the camp associated with acting ODM party leader Oburu Odinga, with 51 per cent backing Linda Mwananchi compared to 47 per cent for Oburu’s side.

In contrast, ODM supporters opposed to the Broad-Based Government were found to overwhelmingly back the Sifuna faction, with 90 per cent expressing support for Linda Mwananchi.

The survey further found that a slight majority of ODM supporters — 53 per cent — favour fielding an opposition candidate to challenge President William Ruto in the 2027 General Election.

Of those surveyed, 32 per cent said they would prefer the candidate to come from ODM, while 21 per cent backed a flagbearer from another Azimio or United Opposition affiliate party.

Only a small minority supported backing President Ruto for re-election, whether under a United Democratic Alliance (UDA) ticket or an ODM-backed arrangement, with both options attracting 8 per cent support each.

Meanwhile, 28 per cent of ODM supporters said the party should remain neutral and allow members to decide independently whom to support in the next election.

“In reality, it seems much will depend on the outcome of the current contest for control of the party between its two competing factions, ‘Linda Mwananchi’ and ‘Linda Ground’,” the report states.

The findings come amid shifting political loyalties ahead of the 2027 General Election, with support for both ODM and the ruling UDA showing signs of decline as the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) gains momentum.

According to the survey, support for ODM and UDA has dropped significantly compared to their August 2022 levels, reflecting voter fatigue, changing political loyalties and growing uncertainty in the country’s political landscape.

At the same time, DCP has recorded notable growth, with support rising from 9 per cent in September 2025 to 16 per cent in May 2026.

In overall party popularity, ODM leads marginally at 18 per cent, followed closely by UDA at 17 per cent and DCP at 16 per cent — figures that fall within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 2.18 per cent. Jubilee Party ranked fourth with 11 per cent support.