Former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party has seen a significant rise in popularity, according to a recent TIFA survey.
The party’s support has nearly tripled from 3 percent in August to 11 percent in November.
TIFA attributes this rise to Uhuru’s renewed public role in party affairs and his endorsement of former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, now Jubilee’s Deputy Party Leader.
Meanwhile, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) has lost ground. The survey released on Tuesday, December 23, 2025, shows DCP’s support dropped from 9 percent in August to 6 percent in November, a decline of three percentage points over three months.
The survey also shows that the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is now Kenya’s most popular political party, narrowly overtaking the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA). ODM commands 20 percent support nationwide, while UDA follows at 16 percent.
Despite remaining the two dominant parties, both ODM and UDA have lost support compared to levels recorded shortly after the 2022 General Election. TIFA notes that voter loyalty is increasingly fluid, with many Kenyans shifting party preferences as the country heads toward by-elections and the 2027 General Election.
Coalition support slightly strengthens ODM’s standing. The Azimio coalition commands about 6 percent support, compared to 2 percent for the Kenya Kwanza coalition. Combined, parties and coalitions under the broad-based government arrangement account for roughly 44 percent of Kenya’s adult population.
Analysts caution that ODM’s rising popularity does not automatically translate into support for President William Ruto’s 2027 re-election bid. The party has experienced growing internal debate in recent months, especially over its future direction and leadership following reduced frontline activity from long-serving party leader Raila Odinga.
ODM’s rise is notable compared to TIFA’s August survey, when the party stood at 13 percent. Its growth has allowed it to overtake UDA amid increasing political engagement across the country.
The survey also shows a decline in the number of Kenyans with no party affiliation or who remain undecided. Those identifying with no party dropped from 31 percent to 22 percent, while undecided voters fell from 10 percent to 6 percent, likely reflecting heightened political activity ahead of the late November by-elections and early positioning for 2027.
One of the main beneficiaries of these shifts, aside from ODM, is Jubilee. T
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