Two-thirds of Kenyans say their personal or household economic situation has worsened compared with the period before the 2022 General Election, pointing to continued pressure on households across the country.
The latest TIFA survey, released on September 9, 2026, shows that 65% of Kenyans feel their economic situation has deteriorated since the last election.
The findings suggest that any economic recovery taking place has yet to translate into stronger confidence at household level.
The proportion of Kenyans reporting an improvement in their economic situation has also declined since May, although it remains slightly higher than levels recorded in 2025.
The survey shows that a majority of residents in all nine regions covered by TIFA reported that their personal or family economic situation had worsened since the 2022 election.
The highest levels were recorded in Mt Kenya and Western, where 79% and 74% of respondents respectively said they were worse off.
Lower Eastern and Nairobi followed, with 69% of respondents in each region reporting a deterioration in their economic situation.
The negative assessment was also recorded in areas where the Broad-Based Government (BBG) currently enjoys relatively strong support.
In Nyanza, 58% said their economic situation had worsened, followed by Central Rift at 53% and Northern at 49%.
TIFA’s comparison of its recent surveys shows little significant change in the proportion of Kenyans who feel worse off since the 2022 election.
The figure stood at 67% in November 2025, declined to 64% in May 2026 and rose slightly to 65% in June.
TIFA said the changes were not statistically significant.
At the same time, only 12% of respondents in the latest survey said their personal or household economic situation had improved since the 2022 election.
This is the lowest level recorded since August last year, when the figure stood at 10%.
The findings could present a major challenge for politicians seeking re-election, particularly those associated with the current administration.
With the 2027 General Election approaching, economic conditions and household incomes are likely to remain important issues for voters.
The survey also reveals a sharp difference in economic perceptions between supporters and opponents of the Broad-Based Government.
Among BBG supporters, 19% said their personal or household economic situation had improved since the 2022 election.
Only 8% of BBG opponents reported an improvement.
The reverse is true when it comes to those who feel their situation has worsened.
About 73% of BBG opponents said their economic situation had deteriorated, compared with 50% of BBG supporters.
TIFA noted that further data would be needed to establish whether these differences reflect actual economic conditions experienced by the two groups or are partly influenced by political views.
The survey also examined changes in employment status since the last election.
One of the most notable changes was a decline in the proportion of respondents who identified themselves as students, reflecting the fact that many of those who were students in 2022 have since entered the labour market.
The 8% decline in the student category was distributed across several employment groups.
Full-time employment, part-time or casual employment and unemployment each increased by about 2%, while self-employment rose by about 3%.
TIFA said the findings highlight the continuing challenge of creating enough jobs for a growing working-age population.
A separate comparison involving respondents aged 35 and above found no significant changes in most employment categories.
The main exception was retirement, which increased from 1% to 4%.
The findings point to job creation as a major challenge for the next administration, regardless of which political formation wins the 2027 election.
The challenge will include expanding opportunities in both formal employment and informal or self-employment sectors.
TIFA’s comparison of estimated average monthly incomes from its four most recent surveys shows relatively little change.
However, the proportion of respondents earning below Sh10,000 per month declined to 23%, down from 29% a year earlier.
The improvement appears to correspond with the decline in the proportion of Kenyans reporting that their economic situation had worsened.
TIFA noted that the share reporting a worsening situation declined from 75% in May 2025 to 65% in the latest survey.
However, income figures need to be considered alongside the cost of living and inflation.
The report noted that inflation was around 4% during 2025 but had recently risen to nearly 7%, partly linked to the impact of the war in the Middle East.
This means that an increase or improvement in nominal income does not necessarily translate into greater purchasing power for households.
Kenyans also remain deeply concerned about the state of the national economy.
According to TIFA, 65% of respondents described the country’s economic situation as “very bad”.
Only 2% considered the national economic situation “very good”.
The negative assessment cuts across political affiliations.
Among BBG supporters, 48% described the national economy as “very bad”, compared with 4% who considered it “very good”.
Among BBG opponents, the proportion describing the economy as “very bad” was significantly higher at 73%.
The report noted that it is difficult to determine whether the more positive assessment among BBG supporters reflects their political loyalty or differences in their actual economic circumstances.
Despite widespread economic concerns, Kenyans appear to have a slightly more positive assessment of their own household situation than of the national economy.
Among BBG supporters, 55% described their household economic situation as either “very bad” or “somewhat bad”.
This comprised 24% who considered it “very bad” and 31% who described it as “somewhat bad”.
Among BBG opponents, 72% viewed their household economic situation negatively, with 26% describing it as “very bad” and 46% as “somewhat bad”.
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