More than half of Kenyans oppose the Broad-Based Government (BBG) arrangement between President William Ruto’s administration and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), a new survey by TIFA Research has found.
The survey released on September 9, 2026, shows that 52% of Kenyans oppose the political arrangement, compared with 30% who support it.
Another 15% of respondents said they had no opinion, while 4% said they were not aware of the de facto coalition between the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and ODM.
“Among all Kenyans, nearly twice as many express opposition to the BBG as compared to those who say they support it (52% vs. 30%), with the remainder either having no opinion (15%) or revealing that they are not aware of this de facto coalition between UDA and ODM,” the report states.
The findings come amid growing political divisions within ODM, raising questions about the future of the arrangement ahead of the 2027 General Election.
TIFA said its last five surveys show that support for the BBG among Kenyans has remained below one-third in most instances.
The main exceptions were May and August last year.
Support stood at 22% in May before rising sharply to 44% in August.
The current support level of 30% is the same recorded in May.
According to TIFA, the figures could indicate that the continuing disagreement within ODM over whether to support President Ruto’s re-election bid has created a relatively stable ceiling for support for the BBG.
The Broad-Based Government arrangement was launched in the aftermath of the Gen-Z protests of June 2024.
It was presented as an effort to bring together the government and opposition to address concerns raised during the protests and pursue a 10-point reform agenda.
However, the political partnership has increasingly faced opposition from sections of the traditional support bases of both parties.
The growing divisions within ODM have become particularly significant as the 2027 election approaches.
TIFA’s report highlights growing disquiet within ODM over the party’s relationship with President Ruto’s administration.
The divisions have been particularly visible within the party’s senior leadership, with the Linda Mwananchi faction increasingly distancing itself from the party’s current direction.
The faction has been associated with Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, Siaya Governor James Orengo and Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi.
The three leaders have increasingly indicated that their political future could lie outside ODM.
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has also sought to welcome members of the faction into his Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP).
The internal disagreements have also been linked to changes within the Senate, including Sifuna’s replacement as Deputy Minority Whip by a senator considered supportive of the BBG arrangement.
At the same time, the mainstream ODM leadership has increasingly pushed for the Deputy President position on the UDA ticket if the political partnership continues into the 2027 election.
The demand could create further tensions with supporters and associates of the current Deputy President, Prof. Kithure Kindiki.
Political disagreements have also emerged between ODM and UDA over the issue of zoning ahead of the 2027 election.
ODM has pushed for UDA to avoid fielding candidates in regions considered its traditional strongholds.
The demand has become a major point of discussion within the political partnership as both parties position themselves ahead of the election.
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