Matiang’i, Kalonzo and Gachagua Nearly Tied as Best Bets to Challenge Ruto in 2027

A new national survey has revealed no clear consensus among Kenyans on who stands the best chance of unseating President William Ruto in the 2027 General Election, with several Opposition figures emerging as nearly equal contenders.

According to the latest national survey released on May 14, 2026, by the Trends and Insights For Africa (TIFA), titled Current Political Alignments and 2027 Election Prospects, former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua are nearly tied as the opposition leaders viewed as having the best chance of defeating President Ruto.

The survey found that Matiang’i and Kalonzo each attracted 18 per cent support from respondents, while Gachagua closely followed at 17 per cent.

Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, described in the report as a political newcomer in presidential preference rankings, was not far behind at 10 per cent.

The findings indicate a fragmented Opposition landscape, with no single figure emerging as a dominant challenger to President Ruto ahead of next year’s election.

TIFA further identified notable differences in opinion between supporters and opponents of the Broad-Based Government (BBG) arrangement between President Ruto and ODM.

Among supporters of the BBG, Kalonzo Musyoka was viewed as having the strongest chance of defeating the President, attracting 18 per cent support.

However, respondents opposed to the BBG rated Fred Matiang’i as the strongest potential challenger, with 23 per cent backing him for the role.

Meanwhile, respondents who expressed no opinion on the BBG identified Edwin Sifuna as President Ruto’s most formidable opponent, with 18 per cent support.

The survey also found that significantly more supporters of the Broad-Based Government believe no opposition figure can defeat President Ruto in the next election, with 28 per cent holding that view.

The findings come as President Ruto continues to lead the field of potential presidential contenders, polling at 24 per cent nationally and remaining the country’s most popular prospective candidate.

However, TIFA noted that while President Ruto currently enjoys the highest support, his popularity level — representing roughly one-quarter of Kenyans — suggests the Opposition still has considerable room to consolidate support before the 2027 General Election.

The pollster observed that support for many of the President’s likely challengers remains concentrated within regional strongholds, raising questions over their ability to build nationwide appeal.

The survey also pointed to legal uncertainty surrounding Rigathi Gachagua, whose eligibility to contest in the 2027 election remains unresolved due to an ongoing court challenge linked to his 2024 impeachment.

TIFA highlighted several shifts in presidential preference ratings over the past year, including the political exit of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga from the presidential race.

At the same time, Edwin Sifuna has emerged as a growing political force, registering a rise in popularity from zero to 10 per cent in presidential preference rankings.

Meanwhile, Fred Matiang’i’s support has declined from 32 per cent to 24 per cent since his return from the United Kingdom a year ago, while Kalonzo Musyoka’s rating dropped sharply from 29 per cent in November 2025 to 14 per cent in the latest survey.