There may be no more intriguing situation in the transfer landscape right now than Vinicius Jr’s future.
The Real Madrid forward is unquestionably one of the most high-profile footballers on the planet.
The Brazil international joined Real as an 18-year-old in 2018, winning 14 trophies and scoring 128 goals in 375 matches for the Spanish giants.
To think they have allowed him to enter the final year of his contract is perplexing – but that is where we are.
In normal circumstances, according to industry sources, Vinicius’ market value would exceed £200m.
On the pitch, that amount of money would get you a world class left-winger who is also adept at playing centrally, as well as a player who, aged 26, is reaching his peak years.
Off the pitch, you would be signing a global icon whose commercial value would be financially lucrative.
‘Arsenal want proven talent – and Vinicius fits bill’
Real Madrid have tried to renew their attacker’s contract and opened further talks with him on Monday – but, as of yet, to no avail.
His potential availability has alerted Arsenal, who are among the clubs to have internally explored exploiting the contractual impasse. Teams in Saudi Arabia are also monitoring his situation closely.
Gunners manager Mikel Arteta wants to sign proven talent – and Vinicius fits the bill.
Sources close to Arsenal insist he is just one of a number of options the club are exploring in their search for a left-sided attacker, after missing out on Morgan Rogers to Chelsea.
However, BBC Sport understands Arteta has become so smitten with the notion of signing Vinicius that he is viewed internally as the club’s number one target.
As Arsenal discovered with Rogers, there are no guarantees clubs attract their priority targets.
Indeed, Arsenal are realistic about their chances of landing Vinicius Jr. They know it is a long shot.
Similarly, there is a sense from those close to Vinicius Jr that any move to Arsenal would be difficult.
For most South American footballers, playing for Real Madrid or Barcelona is a lifelong ambition. Leaving the Spanish capital – even for a club as illustrious at Arsenal – would be viewed as, at best, a sidewards step.
With Real being arguably the biggest club on the planet, there is a sense that leaving the Bernabeu would also impact the player’s commercial brand.
Talks over a new Real deal for Vinicius are expected to ramp up in the coming days.
It is claimed the forward is still very receptive to renewing at the Bernabeu but “wants to feel loved”. Recent reports have stated that new manager Jose Mourinho wants to keep all his big names at the club.
But there is serious jeopardy for Real if they keep Vinicius without renegotiating his contract. The scenario of the Brazilian leaving for nothing in 2027 would represent a financial catastrophe, even for a club as cash rich as them.
With that in mind, resolving the situation one way or another is understandably viewed as a priority for Real before the transfer deadline.
As it stands Vinicius can start speaking to rival clubs about a free transfer move away from Real at the turn of the year. Leaving on a free will be far more lucrative in terms of wages to the attacker than leaving this summer, when the buying club has to find a transfer fee.
Additionally, how much would Real demand for Vinicius?
Their move for Eden Hazard seven years ago may provide us with clues. The club signed the Belgian in 2019 in a deal worth up to £130m. He was 28 at the time and in the final year of his contract at Chelsea.
Vinicius is two years younger and has a commercial value that exceeds Hazard’s – and that is not to mention the seven-year cost of inflation.
It is clear that Arsenal would almost certainly need to obliterate the British transfer record of £125m, from Alexander Isak’s move from Newcastle to Liverpool last summer.
Then there are Vinicius’ wages to factor in. Reports suggest he earns in the region of £450,000 a week at Real Madrid, although sources indicate it is considerably more.
At Arsenal, that would immediately make him the club’s top earner by some distance, with Bukayo Saka currently earning up to £400,000-a-week.
But, with Vinicius a year away from his Real contract expiring, it is not simply a case of merely matching – or even slightly improving – his money if he was to leave this summer.
The nature of free transfers means Vinicius could conceivably double his money next year.
With that scenario now within reach, it is safe to assume the forward will almost certainly request a significant pay increase if he moves this summer.
Having to find what is likely to be a minimum £130m plus wages will be a hard push for any club, no matter how rich, in the era of financial regulation.
Arsenal, nevertheless, have analysed the numbers and believe they have the financial means to fund a move for Vinicius. It is understood the signing has widespread backing across the club.
In the past, Arsenal have offered players very generous image rights deals. This would be a key component of any agreement to take Vinicius to the Premier League.
The winger’s advisors at agency Roc Nation will be fully aware of these factors.
The fact Roc Nation also represent Arsenalattacker Gabriel Martinelli – whose chances would be left severely limited by Vinicius’ arrival – also makes for an intriguing subplot.
It is understood that Martinelli, who has up to two years left on his contract, is happy at Arsenal and will only consider leaving for an opportunity that suits him.
Effectively, the leverage is almost entirely with Vinicius.
Arsenal are unquestionably one of the most attractive projects in European football. They will be one of the favourites to lift the Champions League next season, having lost on penalties in last season’s final. They are in a very strong financial position, too.
But a move to north London would require Vinicius to relinquish the sort of leverage that most players, even of his standing, do not have.
Perhaps most importantly of all, it would mean him giving up on being a Real Madrid footballer.
Is he prepared to do that? We should have the answer soon.
By BBC Sports
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