A new TIFA Research survey has revealed a significant political divide among Kenyans over government accountability, media freedom, institutional trust and the right to demonstrate.
The survey, released on September 9, 2026, shows that supporters of the Broad-Based Government (BBG) are generally more positive than its opponents about the level of freedom enjoyed by citizens and the performance of key institutions.
The survey found that BBG supporters are more likely than opponents to believe that Kenyans have the freedom to criticise the government.
About 34% of BBG supporters said citizens have “a great deal” of freedom to criticise the government.
This compares with 22% among BBG opponents.
A similar difference emerged regarding media freedom.
About 40% of BBG supporters said there is “a great deal” of media freedom in Kenya, compared with 27% of those who oppose the BBG.
The findings point to a significant difference in how supporters and opponents of the political arrangement assess the civic and media environment in the country.
TIFA also compared Kenyans’ views on whether political leadership can be changed through elections with their perceptions of the government’s obedience to court orders.
The survey found considerably more positive views regarding the possibility of changing political leadership through elections.
However, views on government compliance with court orders were more divided.
The largest gap between BBG supporters and opponents emerged among respondents who said the government does not obey court orders at all.
About 19% of BBG supporters gave this response, compared with 39% of BBG opponents.
The findings highlight a sharp political difference in perceptions of government accountability and respect for judicial decisions.
Political affiliation also emerged as an important factor in Kenyans’ level of trust in national institutions.
TIFA found that 22% of BBG supporters said they have “a lot” of trust in President William Ruto.
Among BBG opponents, only 6% expressed the same level of trust.
However, even among BBG supporters, 19% said they have no trust in the President.
The difference was less pronounced when respondents were asked about the Judiciary.
About 11% of BBG supporters said they had “a lot” of trust in the Judiciary, compared with 5% among BBG opponents.
TIFA said the differences in institutional trust appeared to vary depending on how respondents perceived the institutions’ political role.
The survey found an even wider gap in perceptions of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC).
About 19% of BBG supporters said they had “a lot” of trust in the electoral agency.
Only 6% of BBG opponents expressed the same level of trust.
This means BBG supporters were more than three times as likely to give the IEBC the highest trust rating.
The difference was much smaller regarding political parties.
About 9% of BBG supporters said they had “a lot” of trust in political parties, compared with 6% among BBG opponents.
TIFA noted that the smaller difference could be linked to the fact that political parties exist on both sides of Kenya’s political divide.
A similar political divide was evident in perceptions of the National Police Service.
About 14% of BBG supporters gave the police the highest trust rating, compared with only 5% of BBG opponents.
The difference was less pronounced regarding county governments.
About 11% of BBG supporters gave county governments the highest trust rating, compared with 5% among BBG opponents.
When the two positive trust ratings were combined, 43% of BBG supporters expressed positive views about county governments, compared with 26% of BBG opponents.
TIFA also asked Kenyans who they believed was responsible for violence witnessed during recent protests.
A plurality of Kenyans, 42%, blamed the national government or the President.
The figure increased to 66% when the police were included as part of the national government.
Political differences were again evident.
About 53% of BBG supporters attributed blame to the national government and police, compared with 76% of BBG opponents.
The figures show that perceptions of protest-related violence remain closely linked to political affiliation.
Despite the political divisions, there is broad support among Kenyans for the right to participate in peaceful demonstrations.
An overwhelming 82% of respondents said they support the right of fellow citizens to organise or participate in lawful and peaceful demonstrations.
The difference between BBG supporters and opponents was relatively small.
About 79% of BBG supporters expressed support for the right to peaceful demonstrations, compared with 86% of BBG opponents.
However, opposition to such demonstrations was nearly twice as high among BBG supporters.
About 21% of BBG supporters opposed the right, compared with 12% among BBG opponents.
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