The World Bank Group has added Sh588 billion in securitised future revenues and verified pending bills to Kenya’s public debt, indicating the country’s debt burden is higher than reflected in official government statistics.
In its May 2026 Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA), the World Bank said Kenya’s public debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 71.3 percent in 2025, up from the previously estimated 67.3 percent, after broadening the definition of public debt to include additional liabilities and financial obligations.
The revised assessment incorporates three new elements into Kenya’s debt analysis: securitised future revenue streams, verified but unpaid pending bills, and proceeds from privatisation programmes, which are treated as public liquid financial assets.
According to the World Bank, Kenya has raised about Sh383 billion by securitising future revenue streams from three government funds, an amount that has been included in the country’s debt stock despite not being reflected in official government debt figures.
The lender also included Sh175 billion in verified pending bills. The amount follows the verification of Sh255 billion in historical pending bills by the Pending Bills Verification Committee, of which Sh80 billion has already been settled.
“Kenya has securitised future revenue streams from three funds, raising approximately Sh383 billion, which has been included in the debt stock, though not yet in official statistics,” the World Bank said.
“Second, the Pending Bills Verification Committee has verified Sh255 billion in historic pending bills, of which Sh80 billion has been settled; the remaining verified stock is added to the debt sustainability analysis debt parameter.”
The World Bank further noted that about Sh350 billion expected from privatisation programmes will be channelled into the proposed National Infrastructure Fund (NIF) and treated as an accumulation of public liquid financial assets.
The National Treasury has increasingly turned to securitisation to finance infrastructure projects and clear outstanding obligations by pledging future government revenues.
Under the arrangements, part of the Road Maintenance Levy Fund (RMLF) and the Railway Development Levy (RDL) has been committed to repay investors financing road infrastructure and the extension of the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) from Suswa to Malaba.
The government has also ring-fenced a portion of annual tourism levy collections to help repay private investors financing the ongoing development of the Bomas International Convention Complex.
The inclusion of securitised revenues in Kenya’s debt stock comes amid a long-running disagreement between the National Treasury and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over how such financing should be treated.
Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi has maintained that securitised revenues should not be classified as sovereign debt because the funds are transferred to special purpose vehicles (SPVs), which operate independently of the government.
“The issue of securitisation is not that the IMF thinks it’s the wrong idea. They are supporting securitisation, saying it is one of the most innovative ways of raising funds,” Mbadi said.
“The concern is an accounting matter on whether we should capture it as sovereign debt or not. Our position as the government is that once you sell a right to an SPV, there is no risk to the government at all.”
However, the IMF argues that securitised future revenues should either be treated as loans to the securitisation entity or as direct government borrowing because the transactions ultimately create public sector liabilities.
The Fund has also recommended that Kenya expand its definition of public debt to include obligations arising from financial leases, public-private partnerships (PPPs), verified pending bills, infrastructure financing through securitisation, and more than Sh1 trillion in non-guaranteed borrowing by state corporations.
Currently, Kenya’s official public debt figures only capture government loans and securities such as Treasury bonds and Treasury bills.
Despite the broader debt assessment, the World Bank maintained that Kenya’s debt remains sustainable, although it continues to classify the country as being at high risk of debt distress, with sustainability dependent on the continued implementation of sound fiscal and economic reforms.
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