Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna has emerged as a fast-rising political figure ahead of the 2027 General Election, with a new survey indicating growing electoral popularity and increasing recognition as a key Luhya political leader.
Sifuna’s profile has risen sharply in the presidential preference rankings, moving from virtually no measurable support to about 10 per cent, placing him among the top contenders and third in overall preference for the 2027 presidential race.
His growing influence comes amid internal tensions within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), where a new faction known as “Linda Mwananchi” has emerged following widening ideological and leadership disputes within the party.
According to the latest national survey released on May 14, 2026 by the Trends and Insights For Africa (TIFA), titled Current Political Alignments and 2027 Election Prospects, about 73 per cent of respondents who identify with ODM or feel closest to the party expressed support for the Linda Mwananchi faction.
The faction is largely associated with leaders aligned to Sifuna, who have been advocating for a more independent opposition stance and questioning ODM’s continued cooperation with President William Ruto’s administration under the Broad-Based Government (BBG) arrangement.
The survey shows that among ODM supporters who back the BBG arrangement, opinion is nearly evenly split, with 51 per cent supporting the Sifuna-led faction compared to 47 per cent backing the camp associated with acting ODM party leader Oburu Odinga.
In contrast, ODM supporters opposed to the BBG overwhelmingly support the Sifuna-aligned faction, with 90 per cent backing Linda Mwananchi.
The report further reveals that a slight majority of ODM supporters — 53 per cent — prefer that the party field an opposition candidate to challenge President Ruto in the 2027 election.
Of those surveyed, 32 per cent want the candidate to come from ODM, while 21 per cent prefer a nominee from another Azimio or United Opposition affiliate party.
Only a small minority support backing President Ruto’s re-election bid, whether under the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) or an ODM-aligned arrangement, with both options attracting 8 per cent support each.
Meanwhile, 28 per cent of ODM supporters said the party should remain neutral and allow members to individually decide whom to support.
The report notes that the ongoing internal contest between the “Linda Mwananchi” and “Linda Ground” factions is likely to play a decisive role in shaping ODM’s political direction ahead of 2027.
Beyond party politics, the survey shows President Ruto remains the country’s most popular potential presidential candidate, commanding 24 per cent support nationally.
However, TIFA notes that while he leads the field, the figure — representing roughly one-quarter of respondents — suggests significant space remains for opposition consolidation ahead of the election.
The pollster also observes that support for most opposition figures remains largely concentrated in regional strongholds, raising questions about their ability to build nationwide appeal.
The survey further points to uncertainty over whether fragmented opposition support can coalesce behind a single candidate if a unified flagbearer emerges.
It also highlights legal uncertainty surrounding former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, whose eligibility to contest remains unclear due to an ongoing court case linked to his 2024 impeachment.
TIFA also records notable shifts in presidential preference ratings over the past year, including the political exit of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga from the presidential race.
Among other contenders, former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i has seen his support decline from 32 per cent to 24 per cent, while Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka has dropped from 29 per cent in November 2025 to 14 per cent.
Former Deputy President Gachagua ranks fifth in the presidential preference ratings at 10 per cent, while Embakasi East MP Babu Owino places sixth with 2 per cent support.
Email your news TIPS to Editor@Kahawatungu.com — this is our only official communication channel
