Support for the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) has recorded significant growth over the past year, rising from six per cent to a peak of 15 per cent in May 2026 before easing to 12 per cent in June.
The findings are contained in the latest TIFA Research poll dubbed Kenya’s Road to the 2027 General Election, released on July 24, 2026.
According to the poll, support for political parties has remained relatively stable over the past 10 months, with a few notable changes.
DCP recorded a decline in support from 16 per cent to 12 per cent since May 2026, while ODM recorded a slight increase in popularity compared with the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), with the difference standing at three percentage points compared with one percentage point previously.
The poll also found that the proportion of Kenyans who do not identify with any political party has increased by four percentage points since May, reaching 28 per cent. However, the figure remains below the 41 per cent recorded in May 2025.
The findings suggest that political parties continue to draw much of their support from regions associated with their respective leaders.
ODM enjoys its strongest support in Nyanza, where it is backed by 47 per cent of respondents, while Wiper leads in Lower Eastern with 45 per cent support.
UDA, meanwhile, records its highest support in the Central Rift region, where it is backed by 43 per cent of respondents.
TIFA noted that UDA’s strongest regional support differs from the traditional pattern of parties drawing their highest backing from the home regions of their leaders, with the party recording its highest popularity in Northern Kenya.
The poll further found that 28 per cent of Kenyans do not identify with any political party, highlighting what TIFA described as the limited relevance of political parties to a significant section of the population, despite the 2027 General Election being just over a year away.
Among Kenyans who support a political party, 44 per cent said they are actual members of the parties they support.
UDA recorded the highest proportion of supporters who also identify as party members at 59 per cent, followed by ODM at 45 per cent.
DCP, despite being among the newer political parties, recorded the lowest proportion of supporters who said they were formal members, at 34 per cent.
“Among all those who support any political party nearly half (44%) claim to be actual members. Among the five main/most popular parties, UDA has the highest proportion of supporters who claim membership (59%), followed by ODM (45%), while DCP (newest party) has the fewest (34%),” the report said.
The pollster noted that it remains unclear whether formal party membership will increase as the country moves closer to the 2027 General Election.
TIFA also examined why some Kenyans do not identify with any political party.
The most common reason, cited by 29 per cent of respondents, was a lack of interest in politics and elections.
Another 22 per cent said they wanted to wait and see who the parties would nominate as candidates in the 2027 elections, including their presidential candidates.
Meanwhile, 19 per cent said they believed that all political parties were corrupt or ineffective and did not care about ordinary citizens.
Some respondents said the parties they previously supported had changed their policies or leadership in ways that disappointed them.
The poll also found that 20 per cent of those who do not support any political party did not provide a clear reason, while two per cent declined to answer.
On the political divisions within ODM, the survey found that 74 per cent of ODM supporters back the Linda Mwananchi grouping.
The poll indicated that support for the rival Linda Ground, also known as the “Tuko Tayari” faction, remains relatively low across most regions.
According to TIFA, support for Linda Ground ranges from zero per cent in Lower Eastern, where Wiper has a strong presence, to 40 per cent in Nyanza.
The pollster, however, cautioned that the figures in some regions were based on relatively small sample sizes, meaning the statistical margins of error are correspondingly higher.
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